Forex Secret

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Debt: the fragile little benefit from repayment of loans to the ECB

Borrowing rates of countries in difficulty, such as Spain and Italy have evolved in a piecemeal Friday the bond market, not supported by the announcement of the advance repayment of loans outstanding to banks by the ECB.

The debts of the strongest countries, like Germany and France, have suffered, however, when investors take a little more risk in the markets, as evidenced by the increase in exchanges.

Around 1800 (1700 GMT), the 10-year rate of Spain progressed to 5.173% (5.011% Thursday against the fence) on the secondary market, where exchange debt already issued.

In contrast, the rate dropped to Italy 4.129% (4.162% against).

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Friday that 278 banking institutions in the euro area it had expressed their intention to repay in advance January 30, 137,160,000,000 euros the first loan over three years (LTRO) it had granted in December 2011.

It's more than expected by analysts, who had forecast 100 billion euros.

"The interpretation of the contract is that payments are consistent and they indicate that the situation is partially sanitized for banks," said Patrick Jacq, bond strategist at BNP Paribas.

However, "the market's reaction seems a bit overrated. It is difficult to believe that this is the sign of a rapid normalization in the banking system," said the strategist.

In addition, according to him, it is possible that banks borrow money again in a regular lending operation a few days and the ECB, which falls on the same day as the repayment of LTRO next week.

"The medium-term impact depends on whether the reimbursement higher than expected will be followed by others in the coming weeks where it was concentrated in time," Luca Jellinek observed, an economist at Credit Agricole CIB .

This announcement has dominated the news in the bond market, while some indicators were in the program.

The Ifo index, the main barometer of business confidence in Germany, signed in January his third consecutive increase, an increase higher than expected by analysts.

Finally, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, said in Davos that the year 2012 was that of the euro, but must now need to do more to revive the economy after the rally perceptible today in the financial markets.

Debt strongest countries suffered. The rate of Germany grew at 1.636% (1.572% against), like that of France 2.224% (2.166% against).

Outside the euro zone, the UK rate in 10 years amounted to 2.056% against 2.010% yesterday.

United States, the 10-year rate grew at 1.913% against 1.850% Thursday, as the 30-year 3.106% against 3.043% yesterday. The 3-month rate fell to 0.07%, against 0.08% on Thursday.

On the interbank market, the Euribor rose to 0.214% against 0.211% Friday, while the Libor unchanged at 0.301%.
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