Going into the Fed announcement, we can see that the S&P 500 (ES) futures moved below their overnight lows, but held support above yesterday's lows, despite a sharp selloff in oil and commodity-related stocks. We've since bounced above VWAP, creating a range day ahead of the announcement. The U.S. dollar is stronger against the euro and the Aussie dollar (though off its highs); oil remains significantly lower on the day; gold is down, but off its lows. Ten-year Treasury yields are down on the day. With the extended range going into the announcement, traders will be looking for breakout moves. If selling holds above the morning lows, I would expect new highs in ES; failure to make new day highs in ES would target the day's lows as an initial target. I'll be updating via Twitter following the announcement to gauge buying and selling interest.
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